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MLB Umpires
Alex Smart Sports
It is quite surprising that some umpires not only have home and
road dichotomy's, a surprisingly high number also have 'Over' and 'Under' tendencies.
Last season I wrote an article
about the guys in blue (major league umpires) and the numbers resulting from the men that control the game.
I pointed
out that I follow these guys and suggested that it was definitely worth your time and effort if you did like wise, as it could
certainly point you in the right direction.
It is quite surprising that some umpires not only have home and road dichotomy's,
a surprisingly high number also have 'Over' and 'Under' tendencies.
Umpiring crews are not known until about one hour
before the first game of a series and who the home plate ump will be. But you will know in advance who will be behind the
plate from game two forward as that will be the first base umpire from the game before.
The greatest influence a umpire
can have on a game is the strike zone. If the home plate umpire has a small strike zone this forces pitchers to be more precise
and places more pitches over the heart of the plate. This style of umpiring can lead to more high scoring games and Overs.
Conversely, umpires that call a high number of strikes mean more low scoring affairs, which of course has the total going
Under.
In short a good 'UNDER' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 3:1 or higher. A good 'OVER' umpire will have a K/BB
ratio of 2:1 or less.
Last year I mentioned Joe West, Jim Reynolds, James Hoye and Bruce Dreckman as guys that have
real small strike zones and hand out free passes to first base as though they were handing out free hot drinks from the soup
wagon to the homeless. The first three umpires named have one of the smallest K/BB ratio's.
This season has seen little
in the way of change from the first two mentioned last year as Joe West is 5-0 O/U, Jim Reynolds is presently 4-1 O/U.
I
also made reference to Doug Eddings, Jeff Nelson and John Hirschbeck as Umpires with big strike zone's that liked lower scoring
games. Jeff Nelson concluded the season with a 4-15 O/U mark. John Hirschbank however must have either had trouble with his
eyes, or had some bad pitchers and bullpens to deal with, as he finished the year with a 15-9 O/U record. That figure was
against past patterns as Hirschbank , was 7-17 O/U in 2006. He has now been relieved of his blue uniform and will not been
seen in 2008. The other two Umpires mentioned Eddings had a 14-20 O/U record in 2006 while Nelson was a better 12-20 O/U in
'06.
And it's these last two Umpires mentioned that continue to call a higher percentage of strikes than balls and
allow fewer free passes. Doug Eddings is 1-5 O/U and Jeff Nelson is 2-5 O/U after six weeks of action from the diamond. Clearly,
these member's of the blue brigade must have hectic social life's with early restaurant reservations to keep on a regular
basis.
Look for when Eddings and Nelson will be calling strikes and balls from behind home plate. Thee two umpires
are the Under� kings of major league baseball.
Doug Eddings has a very high percentage of "strike" calls (63+%)
and doesn't call a lot of balls. An average Eddings game features 18 strikeouts for every 6 walks (67%). Eddings has been
the best "Under" Umpire in all of Baseball over the last four years. Just take a look; 14-20 O/U in 2007, 13-21 O/U in 2006,
10-20 O/U in 2005 and 10-24 O/U in 2004. That's an overall four year record of 47-85 O/U (64.4%).
Jeff Nelson is another
Umpire that has an extremely high strike percentage (63+%) and also an extremely high K:BB ratio. For every 'free pass' he
allows, he whiffs nearly 2.5 hitters. In the last three years, Nelson is 18-41-2 O/U with only 7.9 RPG. That includes 7-25-1
O/U in all American League games. Going back 5 seasons, the numbers are still consistently 'Under' at 47-75-5 O/U (62.5%).
Data on umpire tendencies holds credence and can always be used as another tool in any pro baseball handicapping regiment.
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